The EPP leaders seem to have made up their minds as well. A re-arrangement of the European party system is already taking shape ahead of the upcoming European elections 23—26 May , not only afterwards. Also, he has spotted a chance to capitalize on the unpredictable situation around the election of the next president of the European Commission. In the longer run, however, the overall influence Fidesz has in European party politics is set to decrease.
Who will be the leader of the European Commission? Who will be the leader of the council of prime ministers, in which I represent Hungary? Party considerations are secondary. The EPP tried to build a bridge to Fidesz, but its leader had chosen another route, she added. Can such a prognosis be supported by enough arguments? According to the resolution adopted with an overwhelming majority of EPP representatives, Fidesz membership in the group remains suspended until it meets a set of conditions, discussed in detail below.
According to the deal from March 20, a three-man panel will evaluate whether Fidesz has fulfilled two sets of conditions. The Helsinki resolution calls for every EPP member party to subscribe to and guarantee the functioning of democratic institutions, the separation of power, law, and judiciary, while condemning restrictions to media freedom and an insufficient transparency of media ownership in some EU member states. Moreover, recently, a massive governmental attack has started against the independence of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences HAS and its research institutions.
All these combined leave little hope for a constructive settlement of the debate between EPP and Fidesz. In order to assess the possible outcomes, one needs to see clearly that the current position of Fidesz suspended membership for an indefinite period is the weakest possible one that party can have.
At the same time, it cannot join any other parties, either, as it is still a suspended EPP member. This is particularly so because the very setup of the three-man panel provides the EPP with an important leverage over Fidesz: time. The panel has no deadline for delivering its assessment, nor does EPP for reacting to it. In other words, EPP is able to keep Fidesz in a suspended position for a longer period of time, and Fidesz has no institutionalized way to counter this.
