As Iraq enters , an economic crisis looms on the horizon, exacerbated by the COVID pandemic and the drop in oil prices. For months now, signs of this crisis have surfaced through delays in payment of public salaries and pensions, and most recently, a decision by the Central Bank of Iraq to devalue the Iraqi dinar, pegged to the U. The tension on the street is palpable. Decades of political science research has demonstrated that economic grievances β particularly when held by youth β can lead to violent outcomes, including civil war.
In addition to fears that the violence will resurge, desperate economic times create opportunities for clientelism, defined here as the exchange of goods and services for electoral and political support. The protest movement of October demonstrated, among other things, that everyday protesters have long sought employment and financial stability.
During a financial crisis and ahead of elections, this makes them easy targets for clientelistic political actors. Iraq has no shortage of clientelistic actors , particularly ones that siphon off state resources rather than private wealth and allocate them to their supporters. The recent decrease in oil prices and state wealth overall would suggest, in theory, that political entities close to the state would suffer a reduction in power. However, among a population heavily reliant on state employment, a decrease in oil prices also makes citizens economically weaker.
It may reduce the cost of buying off a vote, particularly among political parties and factions whose wealth, as described in the proposed budget, is unaffected. The federal budget for which is awaiting approval from parliament has increased the budget allocation for the Ministry of Defense by 9.
The Iraqi government did not pass a budget in , due to political turbulence at the time. Given that Iraqi ministries are generally held by particular political parties, this amounts to ensuring state wealth for a set of entrenched elites at a time when the average Iraqi citizen is financially strained.
